Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Are the Bulls finally going to get something going???

Yesterday was another roller-coaster day with the market trading up and down based on news driven events.  Looked like we were going to end sharply lower based on the less than rosy implications of the FOMC minutes that were released at 14:00 EDT, but then we saw huge buying in the last 10 minutes of the official trading day, and the first 15 minutes of after-market.....specifically, 175,000 S&P futures contracts at a net notional value of $9.1 Billion.  [End of day ramp job] in the minute between 15:59 and 16:00.  Sorry folks, but this smacks of Fed intervention to me, either directly, or in-directly via one of their primary dealers like GS or JPM.  No one else has that kind of liquidity. 

At any rate, as of yesterday's close, we are still basically in the same place we were at the end of the prior day.  Below is a 144 minute SPY chart that shows the downward channel we've been in for the past several weeks.
-click to enlarge-

And here is the same chart, including after hours and pre-market activity.  As you can see, we will be starting the day with a gap up, and above the channel. 

-click to enlarge-

But we still will have the resistance levels discussed in yesterday's post to overcome if the bulls want to show some follow-through.  On the SPY, the comparable gap fill to the S&P discussed below is right around 107.  Let's see what they can do!

Econ reports this morning:

Wednesday, 8:15am, ADP Employment Change, 13K
Wednesday, 10:00am, Const. Spending/ISM Index, -0.7%,53.0
Wednesday, 10:30am, Crude Inventories
Wednesday, 2:00pm, Auto/Truck Sales, 3.9M,5.1M

Good luck trading.

2 comments:

  1. Great info SingleMalt... I'm TJ and enjoy reading your blog. Unlike most all folks who post market information, I acatually like to tell folks what to buy so they can make a move prior the the following day's trading session. Given the news of late (regardless of whether it's Gov spin or other BS), it's time to put money into the market. Today I put money into ETF's (SOXL and TNA) and it's a good day for me. My expectation is that both of them will continue to go up, particularly if the job info coming out Friday is good. Given the holiday season is on the way, the SOXL (chip sector 3X ETF) seems to be a great place to put money. Like a lot of sectors, the chips have taken a beating of late and it's time they rebounded. On top of the holiday season, Intel has started making moves which will hopefully move the entire sector. TNA (Small Cap 3X ETF) is another one that will benifit from any news. Such as the manufacturing data that came out today. Hope you do well.

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  2. Hey TJ - thanks for the comments and the compliment....much appreciated.

    To your first comment, just wanted to clarify that the purpose of this blog is not tell people what to buy, but rather to post my thoughts on the market, and specific stocks/ETF's from time to time. I may point out what I think are bullish or bearish set-ups, but leave it up to the reader to decide whether or not they want to get into a position. If I ever get to the point where I feel like I'm qualified enough to actually recommend positions, I'll likely start a service and get paid for that type of advice. :)

    Yep, the chip sector has been getting beat up for sure, and as I posted in my Intel article last weekend, short term, I would expect a bounce. Just not so sure how long it will last though. Retail has been down, back-to-school spending soft...things that make me wonder how much holiday spending we'll see.

    Thanks for the call outs on the 3x ETF's above. I like to use these (and others) for day trading and short swings, but haven't really talked about any of these leveraged funds because I know that many of the people reading this among my family and friends are not very active participants in the markets. Just my humble opinion, but unless one is able to actively watch the markets, these leveraged ETF's shouldn't be used, as that leverage can go against you really quickly. You sound like a trader however, so yes, I agree that these are all good ways to capitalize on momentum moves in different sectors....as are their bearish counterparts.

    Thanks again, and good luck to you too.

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