I've been pretty bearish since April, and did quite well during the sell-offs in May/June. July sort of caught me by surprise - not so good for the home team, but when the bulls weren't able to take out the swing high from June, I started getting those bearish vibes again. I stayed on the sidelines though waiting for some confirmation and finally entered short positions when price dropped below 1100 and failed to retake this level on a backtest. This week I took profits on those swings as we tested support in the lower 1040's, but right now, I have to admit, I'm at a bit of a loss. After testing support, I was really expecting to see a bounce back into the 1070's and perhaps up to 1080, but the bulls haven't really shown up. Not that there's really any reason why they should...after all, the econ reports this week have been pretty horrid, but that's never stopped the bulls before (over the last 18 months anyway), and we were technically oversold in the short term....so yeah...I was expecting a bounce.....
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Well, so far no bounce, and I'm having a hard time seeing how we're going to get one tomorrow, considering that revised GDP numbers for Q2 come out, and everyone seems to be in agreement that it will be revised significantly lower. But then again, maybe it won't be as bad as everyone expects, and we'll get that bounce after all. If we don't....we could be in serious trouble, as we're right back at that Head & Shoulders neckline. We got a teaser break of the neckline in early July, which is why I got caught by surprise (and got hosed pretty good), but something's telling me that if we break the neckline again, it'll be for real this time....look out below!!!
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For the uninitiated, potential target level has been illustrated, which is based on a measured move that is roughly equal to the distance from the top of the head to the neckline. Sub 900 on the S&P again...very possible....and if it happens, don't say I didn't warn you!
Good luck trading.
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